Identification of growing tuberculosis incidence clusters in a region with a decrease in tuberculosis prevalence in Moscow (2000-2019).

Background: The control of tuberculosis (TB) may benefit from a prospective identification of areas where the incidence may increase in addition to the traditionally identified foci of high incidence. We aimed to identify residential areas with growing tuberculosis incidence rates and assess their significance and stability.

Methods: We analysed the changes in TB incidence rates using case data georeferenced with spatial granularity to apartment buildings in the territory of Moscow from 2000 to 2019.

The trade-off between COVID-19 and mental diseases burden during a lockdown: Mathematical modeling of control measures.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries used lockdowns as a containment measure. While lockdowns successfully contributed to slowing down the contagion, the related mobility restrictions were reportedly associated with an increased risk of major depressive and anxiety disorders. We aimed to quantify the trade-off between the quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gain due to lower COVID-19 incidence as a result of a lockdown and QALY loss due to lockdown-induced mental disorders.

Mathematical modelling of the progression of active tuberculosis: Insights from fluorography data.

Little is known about the dynamics of the early stages of untreated active pulmonary tuberculosis: unknown are both the rates of progression and the model "scheme". The "parallel" scheme assumes that infectiousness of tuberculosis cases is effectively predefined at the onset of the disease, and the "serial" scheme considers all cases to be non-infectious at the onset, with some of them later becoming infectious. Our aim was to estimate the progression of the early stages of pulmonary tuberculosis using data from a present-day population.

Small-scale stable clusters of elevated tuberculosis incidence in Moscow, 2000-2015: Discovery and spatiotemporal analysis.

Objectives: To find residential areas with high incidence rate of tuberculosis in Moscow using spatio-temporal analysis of incidence data.

Methods: We analyzed the spatial patterns of residence locations of smear or culture positive patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in Moscow. To identify clusters with high local incidence rates, the neighborhoods of detected cases were studied.

Age related changes in population of peripheral T cells: towards a model of immunosenescence.

In this paper, we presented the results of analysis of experimental evidence for the decline of the human immune system functioning with age using mathematical model of immunosenescence. The most prominent changes in this system are related to the decline in the T-cellular immunity. These include the decline in the nai;ve T cells generation rate, shrinkage of the volume of the peripheral lymphoid tissue, decline of absolute and relative concentrations of nai;ve T cells in the blood, shortening of the average telomere length of T cells.