Food insecurity and disasters: predicting disparities in total and first-time food pantry visits during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unlabelled: In the U.S. state of Arizona, nearly one-third of households experienced food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase from one-fourth of households before the pandemic.

Mobile Pantries Can Serve the Most Food Insecure Populations.

Food insecurity is an urgent crisis in the United States, with one in nine people lacking a consistent source of the food necessary for an active and healthy lifestyle. This crisis is particularly dire in Maricopa County, Arizona, where 1 in 5 children experience food insecurity, and >1 in 10 residents experience poverty. Mobile food pantries offer an additional resource to address food insecurity; however, there is minimal knowledge about how communities utilize these food distributors.

Worldwide fertility declines do not rely on stopping at ideal parities.

A key demographic hypothesis has been that fertility declines rely on stopping at target parities, but emerging evidence suggests that women frequently reduce fertility without specific numeric targets. To assess the relative importance of these two paths to fertility decline, we develop a novel mixture model to estimate: (1) the proportion of women who stop at a target parity; and (2) mean completed fertility among those who do not. Applied to Demographic and Health Survey data from women aged 45-49 in 84 low- and middle-income countries, and to United States Census cohorts, the model shows considerable variation in the proportion stopping at specific parities (1-84 per cent).