An integrated dual process simulation model of alcohol use behaviours in individuals, with application to US population-level consumption, 1984-2012.

Introduction: The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) describes how attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control guide health behaviour, including alcohol consumption. Dual Process Theories (DPT) suggest that alongside these reasoned pathways, behaviour is influenced by automatic processes that are determined by the frequency of engagement in the health behaviour in the past. We present a computational model integrating TPB and DPT to determine drinking decisions for simulated individuals.

Introducing CASCADEPOP: an open-source sociodemographic simulation platform for us health policy appraisal.

Largescale individual-level and agent-based models are gaining importance in health policy appraisal and evaluation. Such models require the accurate depiction of the jurisdiction's population over extended time periods to enable modeling of the development of non-communicable diseases under consideration of historical, sociodemographic developments. We developed CASCADEPOP to provide a readily available sociodemographic micro-synthesis and microsimulation platform for US populations.

A software architecture for mechanism-based social systems modelling in agent-based simulation models.

This paper introduces the MBSSM (Mechanism-Based Social Systems Modelling) software architecture that is designed for expressing mechanisms of social theories with individual behaviour components in a unified way and implementing these mechanisms in an agent-based simulation model. The MBSSM architecture is based on a middle-range theory approach most recently expounded by analytical sociology and is designed in the object-oriented programming paradigm with Unified Modelling Language diagrams. This paper presents two worked examples of using the architecture for modelling individual behaviour mechanisms that give rise to the dynamics of population-level alcohol use: a single-theory model of norm theory and a multi-theory model that combines norm theory with role theory.

Multiobjective Genetic Programming Can Improve the Explanatory Capabilities of Mechanism-Based Models of Social Systems.

The generative approach to social science, in which agent-based simulations (or other complex systems models) are executed to reproduce a known social phenomenon, is an important tool for realist explanation. However, a generative model, when suitably calibrated and validated using empirical data, represents just one viable candidate set of entities and mechanisms. The model only partially addresses the needs of an abductive reasoning process - specifically it does not provide insight into other viable sets of entities or mechanisms, nor suggest which of these are fundamentally constitutive for the phenomenon to exist.

The Normative Underpinnings of Population-Level Alcohol Use: An Individual-Level Simulation Model.

. By defining what is "normal," appropriate, expected, and unacceptable, social norms shape human behavior. However, the individual-level mechanisms through which social norms impact population-level trends in health-relevant behaviors are not well understood.

System Dynamics to Investigate Opioid Use and Chiropractic Care for Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain.

Objective: The purpose of this investigation was to create a system dynamics (SD) model, including published data and required assumptions, as a tool for future research identifying the role of chiropractic care in the management of chronic, nonmalignant pain in a Canadian population.

Methods: We present an illustrative case description of how we evaluated the feasibility of conducting a large-scale clinical trial to assess the impact of chiropractic care in mitigating excessive opioid use in Canada. We applied SD modeling using current evidence and key assumptions where such evidence was lacking.

PTSD in civilian populations after hospitalization following traumatic injury: A comprehensive review.

Background: Injuries and their comorbidities affect victims far beyond their physical recovery period. Some study-measures show that more than half of patients hospitalized for a traumatic injury suffer from Acute Stress Disorder, alcohol dependence, and recurrent trauma. Overall, this literature review serves to review risk factors for PTSD, screening tools, follow-up strategies, and gaps in the literature for achieving feasible patient-centered interventions for the prevention of PTSD after a traumatic injury.

Restrictive versus liberal red blood cell transfusion strategy after hip surgery: a decision model analysis of healthcare costs.

Background: Red blood cell transfusion related to select surgical procedures accounts for approximately 2.8 million transfusions in the United States yearly and occurs commonly after hip fracture surgeries. Randomized controlled trials have demonstrated lack of clinical benefit with higher versus lower transfusion thresholds in postoperative hip fracture repair patients with cardiac disease or risk factors for cardiac disease.

Assessing productive efficiency and operating scale of community blood centers.

Background: In recent years demand for blood products has decreased, and as a result, the blood product marketplace has become much more competitive. Reducing inefficiency in the procurement and processing of blood products at blood centers can reduce costs while assuring that demand for blood products is met.

Study Design And Methods: This study uses data envelopment analysis to compare the productive efficiency of 65 community blood centers to determine to what extent efficiency can be improved, what cost savings and increases in platelet (PLT) production may be obtained by eliminating inefficiency, and what scales of operation are the most efficient from a budgetary and staffing standpoint.

Dynamic model of nonmedical opioid use trajectories and potential policy interventions.

Background: Nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioid analgesics (POA) increased dramatically over the past two decades and remains a major health problem in the United States, contributing to over 16 000 accidental poisoning deaths in 2010.

Objectives: To create a systems-oriented theory/model to explain the historical behaviors of interest, including the various populations of nonmedical opioid users and accidental overdose mortality within those populations. To use the model to explore policy interventions including tamper-resistant drug formulations and strategies for reducing diversion of opioid medicines.

Data Sources Regarding the Nonmedical Use of Pharmaceutical Opioids in the United States.

Objective: Recent increases in the nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids and the adverse outcomes associated with them have stimulated a large amount of research and data collection on this public health problem. Systematic organization of the available data sources is needed to facilitate ongoing research, analysis, and evaluation. This work offers a systematic categorization of data sources regarding the nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids in the United States.

Key Data Gaps Regarding the Public Health Issues Associated with Opioid Analgesics.

Most pharmaceutical opioids are used to treat pain, and they have been demonstrated to be effective medications for many. Their abuse and misuse pose significant public health concerns in the USA. Research has provided much insight into the prevalence, scope, and drivers of opioid abuse, but a holistic understanding is limited by a lack of available data regarding key aspects of this public health problem.

Modeling the impact of simulated educational interventions on the use and abuse of pharmaceutical opioids in the United States: a report on initial efforts.

Three educational interventions were simulated in a system dynamics model of the medical use, trafficking, and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids. The study relied on secondary data obtained in the literature for the period of 1995 to 2008 as well as expert panel recommendations regarding model parameters and structure. The behavior of the resulting systems-level model was tested for fit against reference behavior data.