Predicting the replicability of social and behavioural science claims in COVID-19 preprints.

Replications are important for assessing the reliability of published findings. However, they are costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything. Accurate, fast, lower-cost alternatives such as eliciting predictions could accelerate assessment for rapid policy implementation in a crisis and help guide a more efficient allocation of scarce replication resources.

Can narrative help people engage with and understand information without being persuasive? An empirical study.

Stories have been shown to be engaging and aid the comprehension and retention of information. However, the persuasive power of storytelling is well-recognized. Is this an inherent property? Can a narrative be constructed that helps people engage with information but does not persuade them? We presented participants (= 1309) with information about a fictional new drug and asked them whether they would license it on the basis of this.

What Affects Perceived Trustworthiness of Online Medical Information and Subsequent Treatment Decision Making? Randomized Trials on the Role of Uncertainty and Institutional Cues.

Unlabelled: Online, algorithmically driven prognostic tools are increasingly important in medical decision making. Institutions developing such tools need to be able to communicate the precision and accuracy of the information in a trustworthy manner, and so many attempt to communicate uncertainties but also use institutional logos to underscore their trustworthiness. Bringing together theories on trust, uncertainty, and psychological distance in a novel way, we tested whether and how the communication of uncertainty and the presence of institutional logos together affected trust in medical information, the prognostic tool itself, and treatment decisions.

The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust.

Uncertainty around statistics is inevitable. However, communicators of uncertain statistics, particularly in high-stakes and potentially political circumstances, may be concerned that presenting uncertainties could undermine the perceived trustworthiness of the information or its source. In a large survey experiment (Study 1; = 10 519), we report that communicating uncertainty around present COVID-19 statistics in the form of a numeric range (versus no uncertainty) may lead to slightly lower perceived trustworthiness of the number presented but has no impact on perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information.

Transparent communication of evidence does not undermine public trust in evidence.

Does clear and transparent communication of risks, benefits, and uncertainties increase or undermine public trust in scientific information that people use to guide their decision-making? We examined the impact of reframing messages written in traditional persuasive style to align instead with recent "evidence communication" principles, aiming to inform decision-making: communicating a balance of risks and benefits, disclosing uncertainties and evidence quality, and prebunking misperceptions. In two pre-registered experiments, UK participants read either a persuasive message or a balanced and informative message adhering to evidence communication recommendations about COVID-19 vaccines (Study 1) or nuclear power plants (Study 2). We find that balanced messages are either perceived as trustworthy as persuasive messages (Study 1), or more so (Study 2).

Do colored cells in risk matrices affect decision-making and risk perception? Insights from randomized controlled studies.

Risk matrices communicate the likelihood and potential impact of risks and are often used to inform decision-making around risk mitigations. The merits and demerits of risk matrices in general have been discussed extensively, yet little attention has been paid to the potential influence of color in risk matrices on their users. We draw from fuzzy-trace theory and hypothesize that when color is present, individuals are likely to place greater value on reducing risks that cross color boundaries (i.

Investigating the presentation of uncertainty in an icon array: A randomized trial.

Background: Clinicians are often advised to use pictographs to communicate risk, but whether they offer benefits when communicating risk imprecision (e.g., 65%-79%) is unknown.

The adverse effects of trastuzumab-containing regimes as a therapy in breast cancer: A piggy-back systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Trastuzumab is a valuable therapy option for women with ERBB2(HER2)+ breast cancer tumours, often used in combination with chemotherapy and alongside other therapies. It is known to have adverse effects, but these have proved difficult to separate from the effects of other concurrent therapies patients are usually taking. This study aims to assess the adverse effects specifically attributable to trastuzumab, and whether they vary by patient subgroup or concurrent therapies.

COVID-19 risk perception and hoax beliefs in the US immediately before and after the announcement of President Trump's diagnosis.

A notable challenge of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been public scepticism over the severity of the disease, or even its existence. Such scepticism is politically skewed in the USA, with conservatives more likely to downplay or deny the risks of the virus. However, the hospitalization of President Trump with COVID-19 in October 2020 served as a high-profile exemplar of the reality and risks of the virus, and as such may have influenced opinions, particularly for US conservatives.

Making BRCA1 genetic test reports easier to understand through user-centered design: A randomized trial.

Purpose: Our objective was to apply a user-centered design process to identify phrases, graphics, and ways of communicating numerical risks that could be used to help patients understand their cancer risk and next steps on receiving BRCA1 genetic test results (positive, negative, and variants of uncertain significance).

Methods: The first phase of the study, a user-centered design process, consisted of 4 rounds of interviews (N = 42, including 13 health care professionals and 16 patients having undergone BRCA testing). The second was a randomized, between-participants experimental study of 456 United Kingdom residents that compared the resulting reports to reports used in a United Kingdom national genomic laboratory hub.

The effects of quality of evidence communication on perception of public health information about COVID-19: Two randomised controlled trials.

Background: The quality of evidence about the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical health interventions is often low, but little is known about the effects of communicating indications of evidence quality to the public.

Methods: In two blinded, randomised, controlled, online experiments, US participants (total n = 2140) were shown one of several versions of an infographic illustrating the effectiveness of eye protection in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Their trust in the information, understanding, feelings of effectiveness of eye protection, and the likelihood of them adopting it were measured.

How People Understand Risk Matrices, and How Matrix Design Can Improve their Use: Findings from Randomized Controlled Studies.

Risk matrices are a common way to communicate the likelihood and potential impacts of a variety of risks. Until now, there has been little empirical work on their effectiveness in supporting understanding and decision making, and on how different design choices affect these. In this pair of online experiments (total n = 2699), we show that risk matrices are not always superior to text for the presentation of risk information, and that a nonlinear/geometric labeling scheme helps matrix comprehension (when the likelihood/impact scales are nonlinear).

Redevelopment of the Predict: Breast Cancer website and recommendations for developing interfaces to support decision-making.

Objectives: To develop a new interface for the widely used prognostic breast cancer tool: Predict: Breast Cancer. To facilitate decision-making around post-surgery breast cancer treatments. To derive recommendations for communicating the outputs of prognostic models to patients and their clinicians.

How Accurate Are Accuracy-Nudge Interventions? A Preregistered Direct Replication of Pennycook et al. (2020).

As part of the Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE) program, the present study consisted of a two-stage replication test of a central finding by Pennycook et al. (2020), namely that asking people to think about the accuracy of a single headline improves "truth discernment" of intentions to share news headlines about COVID-19. The first stage of the replication test ( = 701) was unsuccessful ( = .

Communicating personalized risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study.

As increasing amounts of data accumulate on the effects of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the risk factors that lead to poor outcomes, it is possible to produce personalized estimates of the risks faced by groups of people with different characteristics. The challenge of how to communicate these then becomes apparent. Based on empirical work (total = 5520, UK) supported by in-person interviews with the public and physicians, we make recommendations on the presentation of such information.

How well did experts and laypeople forecast the size of the COVID-19 pandemic?

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, social and traditional media have disseminated predictions from experts and nonexperts about its expected magnitude. How accurate were the predictions of 'experts'-individuals holding occupations or roles in subject-relevant fields, such as epidemiologists and statisticians-compared with those of the public? We conducted a survey in April 2020 of 140 UK experts and 2,086 UK laypersons; all were asked to make four quantitative predictions about the impact of COVID-19 by 31 Dec 2020. In addition to soliciting point estimates, we asked participants for lower and higher bounds of a range that they felt had a 75% chance of containing the true answer.

Effect of Information about COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness and Side Effects on Behavioural Intentions: Two Online Experiments.

The success of mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns rests on widespread uptake. However, although vaccinations provide good protection, they do not offer full immunity and while they likely reduce transmission of the virus to others, the extent of this remains uncertain. This produces a dilemma for communicators who wish to be transparent about benefits and harms and encourage continued caution in vaccinated individuals but not undermine confidence in an important public health measure.

The adverse effects of bisphosphonates in breast cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Background: Bisphosphonate drugs can be used to improve the outcomes of women with breast cancer. Whilst many meta-analyses have quantified their potential benefits for patients, attempts at comprehensive quantification of potential adverse effects have been limited. We undertook a meta-analysis with novel methodology to identify and quantify these adverse effects.

Susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19 around the world.

Misinformation about COVID-19 is a major threat to public health. Using five national samples from the UK ( 1050 and 1150), Ireland ( = 700), the USA ( = 700), Spain ( 700) and Mexico ( 700), we examine predictors of belief in the most common statements about the virus that contain misinformation. We also investigate the prevalence of belief in COVID-19 misinformation across different countries and the role of belief in such misinformation in predicting relevant health behaviours.

Risk communication in tables versus text: a registered report randomized trial on 'fact boxes'.

Objectives: identifying effective summary formats is fundamental to multiple fields including science communication, systematic reviews, evidence-based policy and medical decision-making. This study tested whether table or text-only formats lead to better comprehension of the potential harms and benefits of different options, here in a medical context.

Design: pre-registered, longitudinal experiment: between-subjects factorial 2 (message format) × 2 topic (therapeutic or preventative intervention) on comprehension and later recall (CONSORT-SPI 2018).

The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.

Uncertainty is inherent to our knowledge about the state of the world yet often not communicated alongside scientific facts and numbers. In the "posttruth" era where facts are increasingly contested, a common assumption is that communicating uncertainty will reduce public trust. However, a lack of systematic research makes it difficult to evaluate such claims.

Recommendations for designing genetic test reports to be understood by patients and non-specialists.

Patients and non-specialist healthcare professionals are increasingly expected to understand and interpret the results of genetic or genomic testing. These results are currently reported using a variety of templates, containing different amounts, levels, and layouts of information. We set out to establish a set of recommendations for communicating genetic test results to non-expert readers.

Correction: Creating genetic reports that are understood by nonspecialists: a case study.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.