Predicting the invasiveness of alpine newts in the UK.

Unlabelled: Predicting invasion risk to novel environments is essential for risk management and conservation decision making but the evolutionary lineage at which to make these predictions is often unclear. Here we predict the current suitability across the United Kingdom (UK) for the alpine newt , a species with a complex evolutionary history, a broad native range, a growing number of introduced populations and anecdotal reports of ecological consequences to native amphibian communities. We use species distribution and ecological niche modelling to predict environmental suitability of the alpine newt in the UK at both the species-level and lineage-level and to quantify evolutionary lineage niche overlap.

Anthropogenic and ecological drivers of amphibian disease (ranavirosis).

Ranaviruses are causing mass amphibian die-offs in North America, Europe and Asia, and have been implicated in the decline of common frog (Rana temporaria) populations in the UK. Despite this, we have very little understanding of the environmental drivers of disease occurrence and prevalence. Using a long term (1992-2000) dataset of public reports of amphibian mortalities, we assess a set of potential predictors of the occurrence and prevalence of Ranavirus-consistent common frog mortality events in Britain.