Signatures of self-organized dynamics in rapidly driven critical sandpiles.

We study two prototypical models of self-organized criticality, namely sandpile automata with deterministic (Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld) and probabilistic (Manna model) dynamical rules, focusing on the nature of stress fluctuations induced by driving-adding grains during avalanche propagation, and dissipation through avalanches that hit the system boundary. Our analysis of stress evolution time series reveals robust cyclical trends modulated by collective fluctuations with dissipative avalanches. These modulated cycles attain higher harmonics, characterized by multifractal measures within a broad range of timescales.

Comparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpiles.

The state-of-the-art in the theory of self-organized criticality reveals that a certain inactivity precedes extreme events, which are located on the tail of the event probability distribution with respect to their sizes. The existence of the inactivity allows for the prediction of these events in advance. In this work, we explore the predictability of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) and Manna models on the square lattice as a function of the lattice length.

Explanation of flicker noise with the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld model of self-organized criticality.

With the original Bak-Tang-Wisenefeld (BTW) sandpile we uncover the 1/φ noise in the mechanism maintaining self-organized criticality (SOC)-the question raised together with the concept of SOC. The BTW sandpile and the phenomenon of SOC in general are built on the slow time scale at which the system is loaded and the fast time scale at which the stress is transported outward from overloaded locations. Exploring the dynamics of stress in the slow time in the BTW sandpile, we posit that it follows cycles of gradual stress accumulation that end up with an abrupt stress release and the drop of the system to subcritical state.

Universal predictability of large avalanches in the Manna sandpile model.

Substantiated explanations of the unpredictability regarding sandpile models of self-organized criticality (SOC) gave way to efficient forecasts of extremes in a few models. The appearance of extremes requires a preparation phase that ends with general overloading of the system and spatial clustering of the local stress. Here, we relate the predictability of large events to the system volume in the Manna and Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpiles, which are basic models of SOC.

1/x power-law in a close proximity of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile.

A cellular automaton constructed by Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld (BTW) in 1987 to explain the 1/f noise was recognized by the community for the theoretical foundations of self-organized criticality (SOC). Their conceptual work gave rise to various scientific areas in statistical physics, mathematics, and applied fields. The BTW core principles are based on steady slow loading and an instant huge stress-release.

Dynamics of Phase Synchronization between Solar Polar Magnetic Fields Assessed with Van Der Pol and Kuramoto Models.

We establish the similarity in two model-based reconstructions of the coupling between the polar magnetic fields of the Sun represented by the solar faculae time series. The reconstructions are inferred from the pair of the coupled oscillators modelled with the Van der Pol and Kuramoto equations. They are associated with the substantial simplification of solar dynamo models and, respectively, a simple ad hoc model reproducing the phenomenon of synchronization.