Agent-based modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Florida.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove a widespread, often uncoordinated effort by research groups to develop mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 to study its spread and inform control efforts. The urgent demand for insight at the outset of the pandemic meant early models were typically either simple or repurposed from existing research agendas. Our group predominantly uses agent-based models (ABMs) to study fine-scale intervention scenarios.

Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling.

We evaluate approaches to vaccine distribution using an agent-based model of human activity and COVID-19 transmission calibrated to detailed trends in cases, hospitalizations, deaths, seroprevalence, and vaccine breakthrough infections in Florida, USA. We compare the incremental effectiveness for four different distribution strategies at four different levels of vaccine supply, starting in late 2020 through early 2022. Our analysis indicates that the best strategy to reduce severe outcomes would be to actively target high disease-risk individuals.

Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling.

We evaluate approaches to vaccine distribution using an agent-based model of human activity and COVID-19 transmission calibrated to detailed trends in cases, hospitalizations, deaths, seroprevalence, and vaccine breakthrough infections in Florida, USA. We compare the incremental effectiveness for four different distribution strategies at four different levels of vaccine availability, reflecting different income settings' historical COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Our analysis indicates that the best strategy to reduce severe outcomes is to actively target high disease-risk individuals.

Ecology and public health burden of Keystone virus in Florida.

Keystone virus (KEYV) is an under-studied orthobunyavirus that is transmitted via both horizontal and vertical cycles involving various mosquito species and vertebrate hosts. Historical evidence indicates that KEYV causes sub-clinical infections in humans, and some case studies draw links between this virus and encephalitis. Given KEYV's potential to cause human infections, it is plausible that it causes an under-appreciated proportion of both generic viral infections and unidentified viral encephalitis cases.

Updated projections for COVID-19 omicron wave in Florida.

In this report, we use a detailed simulation model to assess and project the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida. The model is a data-driven, stochastic, discrete-time, agent based model with an explicit representation of people and places. Using the model, we find that the omicron variant wave in Florida is likely to cause many more infections than occurred during the delta variant wave.

COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support.

Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed.