Publications by authors named "Alexander I Jordan"
Article Synopsis
- Researchers used methods from molecular evolution to calculate exact win probabilities for knockout tournaments instead of using slower simulations.
- Their new open-source code is significantly faster, offering improvements two orders of magnitude faster than simulating and over two times faster than traditional methods.
- They can now quickly assess prediction uncertainty by running extensive analyses, even for larger tournaments, on standard laptops in just minutes.
A probability forecast or probabilistic classifier is reliable or calibrated if the predicted probabilities are matched by ex post observed frequencies, as examined visually in reliability diagrams. The classical binning and counting approach to plotting reliability diagrams has been hampered by a lack of stability under unavoidable, ad hoc implementation decisions. Here, we introduce the CORP approach, which generates provably statistically consistent, optimally binned, and reproducible reliability diagrams in an automated way.
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