Publications by authors named "Alex Arenas"

Introduction: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are a global public health concern. In 2019, there were 295.9 million people with chronic hepatitis B and 57.

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Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate.

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This study investigates the role of spatial segregation, prompted by competition avoidance, as a key mechanism for emergent coexistence within microbial communities. Recognizing these communities as complex adaptive systems, we challenge the sufficiency of mean-field pairwise interaction models, and we consider the impact of spatial dynamics. We developed an individual-based spatial simulation depicting bacterial movement through a pattern of random walks influenced by competition avoidance, leading to the formation of spatially segregated clusters.

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Contagion processes relying on the exposure to multiple sources are prevalent in social systems, and are effectively represented by hypergraphs. In this Letter, we derive a mean-field model that goes beyond node- and pair-based approximations. We reveal how the stability of the contagion-free state is decided by either two- or three-body interactions, and how this is strictly related to the degree of overlap between these interactions.

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We consider a system of n coupled oscillators described by the Kuramoto model with the dynamics given by θ˙=ω+Kf(θ). In this system, an equilibrium solution θ∗ is considered stable when ω+Kf(θ∗)=0, and the Jacobian matrix Df(θ∗) has a simple eigenvalue of zero, indicating the presence of a direction in which the oscillators can adjust their phases. Additionally, the remaining eigenvalues of Df(θ∗) are negative, indicating stability in orthogonal directions.

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Background And Objectives: Combination therapy with an immunomodulator (IMM) and an anti-TNF is commonly recommended in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) patients. However, little is known about relapse rates after therapeutic de-escalation. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of relapse in a cohort of UC and CD patients with long-standing clinical remission after discontinuation of IMM or anti-TNF and to identify predictive factors for relapse.

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In some systems, the behavior of the constituent units can create a "context" that modifies the direct interactions among them. This mechanism of indirect modification inspired us to develop a minimal model of context-dependent spreading. In our model, agents actively impede (favor) or not diffusion during an interaction, depending on the behavior they observe among all the peers in the group within which that interaction occurs.

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Here we analyze SARS-CoV-2 genome copies in Catalonia's wastewater during the Omicron peak and develop a mathematical model to estimate the number of infections and the temporal relationship between reported and unreported cases. 1-liter samples from 16 wastewater treatment plants were collected and used in a compartmental epidemiological model. The average correlation between genome copies and reported cases was 0.

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Background: The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive.

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While significant effort has been devoted to understand the role of intraurban characteristics on sustainability and growth, much remains to be understood about the effect of interurban interactions and the role cities have in determining each other's urban welfare. Here we consider a global mobility network of population flows between cities as a proxy for the communication between these regions, and analyze how it correlates with socioeconomic indicators. We use several measures of centrality to rank cities according to their importance in the mobility network, finding PageRank to be the most effective measure for reflecting these prosperity indicators.

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Many complex networked systems exhibit volatile dynamic interactions among their vertices, whose order and persistence reverberate on the outcome of dynamical processes taking place on them. To quantify and characterize the similarity of the snapshots of a time-varying network-a proxy for the persistence,-we present a study on the persistence of the interactions based on a descriptor named temporality. We use the average value of the temporality, [Formula: see text], to assess how "special" is a given time-varying network within the configuration space of ordered sequences of snapshots.

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Congestion emerges when high demand peaks put transportation systems under stress. Understanding the interplay between the spatial organization of demand, the route choices of citizens and the underlying infrastructures is thus crucial to locate congestion hotspots and mitigate the delay. Here we develop a model where links are responsible for the processing of vehicles, which can be solved analytically before and after the onset of congestion, and provide insights into the global and local congestion.

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The behaviour of individuals is a main actor in the control of the spread of a communicable disease and, in turn, the spread of an infectious disease can trigger behavioural changes in a population. Here, we study the emergence of individuals' protective behaviours in response to the spread of a disease by considering two different social attitudes within the same population: concerned and risky. Generally speaking, concerned individuals have a larger risk aversion than risky individuals.

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The lack of medical treatments and vaccines upon the arrival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has made non-pharmaceutical interventions the best allies in safeguarding human lives in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we propose a self-organized epidemic model with multi-scale control policies that are relaxed or strengthened depending on the extent of the epidemic outbreak. We show that optimizing the balance between the effects of epidemic control and the associated socio-economic cost is strongly linked to the stringency of control measures.

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The emergence of order in collective dynamics is a fascinating phenomenon that characterizes many natural systems consisting of coupled entities. Synchronization is such an example where individuals, usually represented by either linear or nonlinear oscillators, can spontaneously act coherently with each other when the interactions' configuration fulfills certain conditions. However, synchronization is not always perfect, and the coexistence of coherent and incoherent oscillators, broadly known in the literature as chimera states, is also possible.

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Percolation is a process that impairs network connectedness by deactivating links or nodes. This process features a phase transition that resembles paradigmatic critical transitions in epidemic spreading, biological networks, traffic and transportation systems. Some biological systems, such as networks of neural cells, actively respond to percolation-like damage, which enables these structures to maintain their function after degradation and aging.

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Introduction: Helicobacter pylori infection affects approximately 70% of the Chilean population. It is a public health problem whose eradication treatment is part of the explicit health guarantees in Chile.

Objectives: Characterize the most widely used H.

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Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during periods of low prevalence and continuously increases as case numbers increase. This effect leads to additional stress on the health care system during periods of high prevalence.

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We study the synchronized state in a population of network-coupled, heterogeneous oscillators. In particular, we show that the steady-state solution of the linearized dynamics may be written as a geometric series whose subsequent terms represent different spatial scales of the network. Specifically, each additional term incorporates contributions from wider network neighborhoods.

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Financial networks have been the object of intense quantitative analysis during the last few decades. Their structure and the dynamical processes on top of them are of utmost importance to understand the emergent collective behavior behind economic and financial crises. In this paper, we propose a stylized model to understand the "domino effect" of distress in client-supplier networks.

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The Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is one of the most extensive surgical treatments for obesity. The treatment of upper gastrointestinal bleeding after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is complex due to the difficulty of accessing the excluded gastric antrum and duodenal bulb. There is no consensus regarding the management of this complication.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study focused on the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in H. pylori treatments in Santiago, Chile, specifically looking at levofloxacin (LevoR) and clarithromycin (ClaR).
  • Results showed high resistance rates: 29% for LevoR and 27% for ClaR, with LevoR being more common in women and increasing with age.
  • These findings suggest a need to reconsider current treatment protocols in Chile due to high resistance rates that exceed recommended limits.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Spain particularly hard, despite being a country with a developed economy and being praised for the robustness of its national health system. In order to understand what happened and to identify how to improve the response, we believe that an independent multi-disciplinary evaluation of the health, political and socio-economic spheres is essential. In this piece we propose objectives, principles, methodology and dimensions to be evaluated, as well as outlining the type of results and conclusions expected.

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While Digital contact tracing (DCT) has been argued to be a valuable complement to manual tracing in the containment of COVID-19, no empirical evidence of its effectiveness is available to date. Here, we report the results of a 4-week population-based controlled experiment that took place in La Gomera (Canary Islands, Spain) between June and July 2020, where we assessed the epidemiological impact of the Spanish DCT app Radar Covid. After a substantial communication campaign, we estimate that at least 33% of the population adopted the technology and further showed relatively high adherence and compliance as well as a quick turnaround time.

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Article Synopsis
  • This study looks at how nerve cells in the brain change their connections when they get damaged.
  • Researchers used two different setups of nerve cells to see how their activity changed when the strong connections between them got weaker.
  • They found that at first, the connections got stronger before they started to weaken, and they think this is because of a special process in the brain that helps it adapt and stay resilient.
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