Less Than 2 °C Warming by 2100 Unlikely.

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use. However these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya's identity to develop a statistically-based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100.