Effect of testing criteria for infectious disease surveillance: The case of COVID-19 in Norway.

During the COVID-19 pandemic in Norway, the testing criteria and capacity changed numerous times. In this study, we aim to assess consequences of changes in testing criteria for infectious disease surveillance. We plotted the proportion of positive PCR tests and the total number of PCR tests for different periods of the pandemic in Norway.

Consequences of reduced effectiveness of salmon lice treatments for lice control.

The effective control of ectoparasitic salmon lice, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, in fish farms is challenged by the salmon lice having developed resistance towards several antiparasitic drugs and by the effectiveness of non-medicinal treatments being limited by considerations of fish welfare. When new antiparasitics are introduced to the market, these should be used sparingly to slow resistance development. Using a population model for salmon lice parameterised for salmonid fish farms in Norway, we quantified how reduced treatment effectiveness influences treatment frequency and lice abundance.

Towards better survival: Modeling drivers for daily mortality in Norwegian Atlantic salmon farming.

Mortality in the production of farmed salmonids is a major constraint to the sustainability of this form of animal husbandry. We have developed a model for the daily mortality in salmon farming over a full production cycle from stocking to harvest, considering different environmental and production factors. These factors included sea temperature, salinity, day within year, fish weight at stocking, stocking day, four types of lice treatments and the possible occurrence of pancreas disease (PD).

Realtime case study simulations of transmission of Pancreas Disease (PD) in Norwegian salmonid farming for disease control purposes.

Pancreas Disease (PD) is a viral disease caused by Salmonid Alphavirus (SAV). It affects farmed salmonids in the North Atlantic, and leads to reduced feed intake and increased mortality with reduced production and welfare as a consequence. In 2013, the estimated cost of an outbreak on an average salmon farm was about 6.

Evaluating effects of different control strategies for Infectious Salmon Anaemia (ISA) in marine salmonid farming by scenario simulation using a disease transmission model.

Infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) is an important viral disease causing economic losses and reduced welfare in farmed Atlantic salmon. Here, we present a spatio-temporal stochastic model for the spread of ISA between and within marine aquaculture farms. The model is estimated on historical production data for all marine salmonid farms in Norway from 2004 to February 2019.

A partly stage-structured model for the abundance of salmon lice in salmonid farms.

The parasitic salmon louse constrains growth in the Norwegian salmon farming industry through density dependent host-parasite interaction. Hence, there is a need for insight into how increases in salmon production, varying spatial organisation of the production and pest control strategies affect salmon louse population dynamics. Here we present a new salmon louse model for exploring effects of varying salmon farming conditions on spatio-temporal abundances of the parasite.

The epidemiological and economic effects from systematic depopulation of Norwegian marine salmon farms infected with pancreas disease virus.

Pancreas disease (PD) is a viral disease associated with significant economic losses in Scottish, Irish, and Norwegian marine salmon aquaculture. In this paper, we investigate how disease-triggered harvest strategies (systematic depopulation of infected marine salmon farms) towards PD can affect disease dynamics and salmon producer profits in an endemic area in the southwestern part of Norway. Four different types of disease-triggered harvest strategies were evaluated over a four-year period (2011-2014), each scenario with different disease-screening procedures, timing for initiating the harvest interventions on infected cohorts, and levels of farmer compliance to the strategy.

Determination of safety margins for whole blood concentrations of alcohol and nineteen drugs in driving under the influence cases.

Legislative limits for driving under the influence of 20 non-alcohol drugs were introduced in Norway in February 2012. Per se limits corresponding to blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) of 0.2g/kg were established for 20 psychoactive drugs, and limits for graded sanctions corresponding to BACs of 0.

Space-time modelling of the spread of pancreas disease (PD) within and between Norwegian marine salmonid farms.

Infectious diseases are a constant threat to industrialised farming, which is characterised by high densities of farms and farm animals. Several mathematical and statistical models on spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases in various farmed host populations have been developed during the last decades. Here we present a spatio-temporal stochastic model for the spread of a disease between and within aquaculture farms.

Space-time modelling of the spread of salmon lice between and within Norwegian marine salmon farms.

Parasitic salmon lice are potentially harmful to salmonid hosts and farm produced lice pose a threat to wild salmonids. To control salmon lice infections in Norwegian salmonid farming, numbers of lice are regularly counted and lice abundance is reported from all salmonid farms every month. We have developed a stochastic space-time model where monthly lice abundance is modelled simultaneously for all farms.

Sexually active groups in cattle-a novel estrus sign.

The current study presents a novel objective measure for characterizing sexually active groups (SAG 3-5) and relates this measure to other behaviors of lactating Holstein-Friesian cows. Cows in SAG 3-5 were required to participate in a minimum of 1 estrus behavior per 5min while staying within 3m (2 cow lengths) of its partner(s) for a minimum of 5min. Twenty Holstein-Friesian cows were video-monitored continuously through 1 complete estrous cycle (22d).

Antibiotic resistance in hospitals: a ward-specific random effect model in a low antibiotic consumption environment.

Association between previous antibiotic use and emergence of antibiotic resistance has been reported for several microorganisms. The relationship has been extensively studied, and although the causes of antibiotic resistance are multi-factorial, clear evidence of antibiotic use as a major risk factor exists. Most studies are carried out in countries with high consumption of antibiotics and corresponding high levels of antibiotic resistance, and currently, little is known whether and at what level the associations are detectable in a low antibiotic consumption environment.

Sea lice as a density-dependent constraint to salmonid farming.

Fisheries catches worldwide have shown no increase over the last two decades, while aquaculture has been booming. To cover the demand for fish in the growing human population, continued high growth rates in aquaculture are needed. A potential constraint to such growth is infectious diseases, as disease transmission rates are expected to increase with increasing densities of farmed fish.

An approach to combining parallel and cross-over trials with and without run-in periods using individual patient data.

Background: In active run-in trials, where patients may be excluded after a run-in period based on their response to the treatment, it is implicitly assumed that patients have individual treatment effects. If individual patient data are available, active run-in trials can be modelled using patient-specific random effects. With more than one trial on the same medication available, one can obtain a more precise overall treatment effect estimate.

Behavior of lactating Holstein-Friesian cows during spontaneous cycles of estrus.

The objectives of the present study were to describe, in detail, behavior associated with standing estrus (STE) in lactating dairy cows and behavioral changes during complete estrous cycles. Estrus signs were monitored by continuous video recording of 20 Holstein-Friesian (HF) cows housed on an outdoor wood-chip pad during 1 estrous cycle (22 d). Other social behavior was recorded during STE and, for comparison, during 1 selected day when none of the cows were in estrus.

Modelling the spread of infectious salmon anaemia among salmon farms based on seaway distances between farms and genetic relationships between infectious salmon anaemia virus isolates.

Infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) is an important infectious disease in Atlantic salmon farming causing recurrent epidemic outbreaks worldwide. The focus of this paper is on tracing the spread of ISA among Norwegian salmon farms. To trace transmission pathways for the ISA virus (ISAV), we use phylogenetic relationships between virus isolates in combination with space-time data on disease occurrences.

Predictors of sub-clinical enterovirus infections in infants: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Enterovirus infections are common, although most often sub-clinical. The present purpose was to assess the impact of breastfeeding and other factors on enterovirus infections in infancy.

Methods: A prospective observational study was carried out on a population-based cohort of 639 Norwegian infants aged 3-12 months.

A stochastic model for the assessment of the transmission pathways of heart and skeleton muscle inflammation, pancreas disease and infectious salmon anaemia in marine fish farms in Norway.

Salmon farming is threatened, economically and ecologically, by infectious diseases. To reduce the risk of epidemics, authorities have developed regulations. These are based on quantitative understanding of pathways of infection, representing disease specific risks.

Levels of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in breast milk in relation to birth weight in a Norwegian cohort.

Background: Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) is a ubiquitous environmental contaminant that, even at low doses, causes destruction of ovarian primordial germ cells in experimental studies. However, its potential for reproductive toxicity in humans exposed to background levels has not been fully evaluated. Here we examined the association between maternal levels of HCB and their infants' birth weight.

Prevalence of alcohol and drugs among Norwegian motor vehicle drivers: a roadside survey.

The objective of the study was to determine the prevalence of alcohol, psychoactive medicinal drugs and illegal drugs among drivers in Norwegian road traffic. Drivers of motor vehicles were selected from April 2005 to April 2006 in the south-eastern part of Norway, surrounding, but not including the capital, Oslo. A stratified two-stage cluster sampling procedure was used.

Predicting survival from microarray data--a comparative study.

Motivation: Survival prediction from gene expression data and other high-dimensional genomic data has been subject to much research during the last years. These kinds of data are associated with the methodological problem of having many more gene expression values than individuals. In addition, the responses are censored survival times.

A stochastic model for infectious salmon anemia (ISA) in Atlantic salmon farming.

Infectious salmon anemia (ISA) is one of the main infectious diseases in Atlantic salmon farming with major economical implications. Despite the strong regulatory interventions, the ISA epidemic is not under control, worldwide. We study the data covering salmon farming in Norway from 2002 to 2005 and propose a stochastic space-time model for the transmission of the virus.

Forecasting acidification effects using a Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation approach.

We present a statistical framework for model calibration and uncertainty estimation for complex deterministic models. A Bayesian approach is used to combine data from observations, the deterministic model, and prior parameter distributions to obtain forecast distributions. A case study is presented in which the statistical framework is applied using the hydrogeochemical model (MAGIC) for an assessment of recovery from acidification of soils and surface waters at a long-term study site in Norway under different future acid deposition conditions.

The influence of missing value imputation on detection of differentially expressed genes from microarray data.

Motivation: Missing values are problematic for the analysis of microarray data. Imputation methods have been compared in terms of the similarity between imputed and true values in simulation experiments and not of their influence on the final analysis. The focus has been on missing at random, while entries are missing also not at random.