Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.

Background: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species.

Methodology/principal Findings: We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change.

Synergies between climate anomalies and hydrological modifications facilitate estuarine biotic invasions.

Environmental perturbation, climate change and international commerce are important drivers for biological invasions. Climate anomalies can further increase levels of habitat disturbance and act synergistically to elevate invasion risk. Herein, we use a historical data set from the upper San Francisco Estuary to provide the first empirical evidence for facilitation of invasions by climate extremes.

Complex seasonal patterns of primary producers at the land-sea interface.

Seasonal fluctuations of plant biomass and photosynthesis are key features of the Earth system because they drive variability of atmospheric CO(2), water and nutrient cycling, and food supply to consumers. There is no inventory of phytoplankton seasonal cycles in nearshore coastal ecosystems where forcings from ocean, land and atmosphere intersect. We compiled time series of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) from 114 estuaries, lagoons, inland seas, bays and shallow coastal waters around the world, and searched for seasonal patterns as common timing and amplitude of monthly variability.

A cold phase of the East Pacific triggers new phytoplankton blooms in San Francisco Bay.

Ecological observations sustained over decades often reveal abrupt changes in biological communities that signal altered ecosystem states. We report a large shift in the biological communities of San Francisco Bay, first detected as increasing phytoplankton biomass and occurrences of new seasonal blooms that began in 1999. This phytoplankton increase is paradoxical because it occurred in an era of decreasing wastewater nutrient inputs and reduced nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, contrary to the guiding paradigm that algal biomass in estuaries increases in proportion to nutrient inputs from their watersheds.

Bioavailability of organic matter in a highly disturbed estuary: the role of detrital and algal resources.

The importance of algal and detrital food supplies to the planktonic food web of a highly disturbed, estuarine ecosystem was evaluated in response to declining zooplankton and fish populations. We assessed organic matter bioavailability among a diversity of habitats and hydrologic inputs over 2 years in San Francisco Estuary's Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. Results show that bioavailable dissolved organic carbon from external riverine sources supports a large component of ecosystem metabolism.