Evaluating priority locations and potential benefits for building a nation-wide fuel break network in Portugal.

Despite growing interest in developing extensive fuel treatment programs to prevent catastrophic wildfires in the Mediterranean region, there is little information on the projected effectiveness of fuel treatments in terms of avoided exposure and risk. In Portugal, a fuel management plan aiming to prevent loss of lives, reduce large fires (>500 ha), and reduce annual burned area is under implementation, with particular emphasis on the nation-wide fuel break network (FBN). In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of the planned FBN in terms of meeting fire management objectives, costs, and benefits.

Effects of ownership patterns on cross-boundary wildfires.

Understanding ownership effects on large wildfires is a precursor to the development of risk governance strategies that better protect people and property and restore fire-adapted ecosystems. We analyzed wildfire events in the Pacific Northwest from 1984 to 2018 to explore how area burned responded to ownership, asking whether particular ownerships burned disproportionately more or less, and whether these patterns varied by forest and grass/shrub vegetation types. While many individual fires showed indifference to property lines, taken as a whole, we found patterns of disproportionate burning for both forest and grass/shrub fires.

The economic reality of the forest and fuel management deficit on a fire prone western US national forest.

Recent extreme wildfire seasons in the United States (US) have rekindled policy debates about the underlying drivers and potential role forest management can play in reducing fuels and future wildfire. Most US western national forests face a substantial backlog of treatments and manifold management issues related to wildfire, forest health, and wildfire protection and constitute the major part of the wildfire problem. However, the precise schedule and detailed assessments that map the type and amount of treatments needed, as well as the associated cost are rarely assessed.

Strategic application of wildland fire suppression in the southwestern United States.

Much of the western United States is experiencing longer fire seasons with an increased frequency of high-severity fires and fire risk. Fire managers in the southwestern United States have increased efforts to reduce fire risk by managing more fires to meet resource objectives (e.g.

Towards a comprehensive wildfire management strategy for Mediterranean areas: Framework development and implementation in Catalonia, Spain.

Southern European countries rely largely on fire suppression and ignition prevention to manage a growing wildfire problem. We explored a more wholistic, long-term approach based on priority maps for the implementation of diverse management options aimed at creating fire resilient landscapes, restoring cultural fire regimes, facilitating safe and efficient fire response, and creating fire-adapted communities. To illustrate this new comprehensive strategy for fire-prone Mediterranean areas, we developed and implemented the framework in Catalonia (northeastern Spain).

Assessing Transboundary Wildfire Exposure in the Southwestern United States.

We assessed transboundary wildfire exposure among federal, state, and private lands and 447 communities in the state of Arizona, southwestern United States. The study quantified the relative magnitude of transboundary (incoming, outgoing) versus nontransboundary (i.e.

Modeling the effects of different fuel treatment mosaics on wildfire spread and behavior in a Mediterranean agro-pastoral area.

Wildfire spread and behavior can be limited by fuel treatments, even if their effects can vary according to a number of factors including type, intensity, extension, and spatial arrangement. In this work, we simulated the response of key wildfire exposure metrics to variations in the percentage of treated area, treatment unit size, and spatial arrangement of fuel treatments under different wind intensities. The study was carried out in a fire-prone 625 km agro-pastoral area mostly covered by herbaceous fuels, and located in Northern Sardinia, Italy.

Wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for central Catalonia.

We provide 40 m resolution wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for the 0.13 million ha fire-prone Bages County in central Catalonia (northeastern Spain) corresponding to node influence grid (NIG), crown fraction burned (CFB) and fire transmission to residential houses (TR). Fire spread and behavior data (NIG, CFB and fire perimeters) were generated with fire simulation modeling considering wildfire season extreme fire weather conditions (97 percentile).

Optimizing prescribed fire allocation for managing fire risk in central Catalonia.

We used spatial optimization to allocate and prioritize prescribed fire treatments in the fire-prone Bages County, central Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The goal of this study was to identify suitable strategic locations on forest lands for fuel treatments in order to: 1) disrupt major fire movements, 2) reduce ember emissions, and 3) reduce the likelihood of large fires burning into residential communities. We first modeled fire spread, hazard and exposure metrics under historical extreme fire weather conditions, including node influence grid for surface fire pathways, crown fraction burned and fire transmission to residential structures.

Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance.

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070).

Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings.

Assessing landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources in a Mediterranean area.

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km(2) located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap.

Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy.

In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September.

Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests.

Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests.

Forest wildfire, fuel reduction treatments, and landscape carbon stocks: a sensitivity analysis.

Fuel reduction treatments prescribed in fire-suppressed forests of western North America pose an apparent paradox with respect to terrestrial carbon management. Such treatments have the immediate effect of reducing forest carbon stocks but likely reduce future carbon losses through the combustion and mortality caused by high-severity wildfires. Assessing the long-term impact of fuel treatment on the carbon balance of fire-prone forests has been difficult because of uncertainties regarding treatment and wildfire impacts on any given landscape.

Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon.

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate.

Wildfire exposure analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA.

We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire-prone forests.

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment.

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from wildfire simulations, (2) spatially identified highly valued resources (HVRs), and (3) response functions that describe the effects of fire (beneficial or detrimental) on the HVR.