The relative influence of cross-seasonal and local weather effects on the breeding success of a migratory songbird.

In seasonal environments, fluctuating early-season weather conditions and short breeding windows limit reproductive opportunities such that breeding earlier or later than the optimum may be particularly costly. Given the risk of early-season energy limitations, time- and energy-based carry-over effects stemming from environmental conditions across the annual cycle may have pronounced consequences for breeding phenology and fitness. Generally, when and where environmental conditions are most influential are poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict the future of climate-sensitive populations.