Moving ecological tree-ring big data forwards: Limitations, data integration, and multidisciplinarity.

In recent years, tree-ring databases have emerged as a remarkable resource for ecological research, allowing us to address ecological questions at unprecedented temporal and spatial scales. However, concerns regarding big tree-ring data limitations and risks have also surfaced, leading to questions about their potential to be representative of long-term forest responses. Here, we highlight three paths of action to improve on tree-ring databases in ecology: 1) Implementing consistent bias analyses in large dendroecological databases and promoting community-driven data to address data limitations, 2) Encouraging the integration of tree-ring data with other ecological datasets, and 3) Promoting theory-driven, mechanistic dendroecological research.

Applying climate change refugia to forest management and old-growth restoration.

Recent studies highlight the potential of climate change refugia (CCR) to support the persistence of biodiversity in regions that may otherwise become unsuitable with climate change. However, a key challenge in using CCR for climate resilient management lies in how CCR may intersect with existing forest management strategies, and subsequently influence how landscapes buffer species from negative impacts of warming climate. We address this challenge in temperate coastal forests of the Pacific Northwestern United States, where declines in the extent of late-successional forests have prompted efforts to restore old-growth forest structure.

Continental-scale tree-ring-based projection of Douglas-fir growth: Testing the limits of space-for-time substitution.

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree-ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today.

Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change.

Forecasts of widespread range shifts with climate change stem from assumptions that climate drives species' distributions. However, local adaptation and biotic interactions also influence range limits and thus may impact range shifts. Despite the potential importance of these factors, few studies have directly tested their effects on performance at range limits.

How will biotic interactions influence climate change-induced range shifts?

Biotic interactions present a challenge in determining whether species distributions will track climate change. Interactions with competitors, consumers, mutualists, and facilitators can strongly influence local species distributions, but few studies assess how and whether these interactions will impede or accelerate climate change-induced range shifts. In this paper, we explore how ecologists might move forward on this question.

Spatial heterogeneity in ecologically important climate variables at coarse and fine scales in a high-snow mountain landscape.

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics.

Climate isn't everything: competitive interactions and variation by life stage will also affect range shifts in a warming world.

Premise Of The Study: The extent to which climate controls species' range limits is a classic biological question that is particularly relevant given anthropogenic climate change. While climate is known to play a role in species distributions, biotic interactions such as competition also affect range limits. Furthermore, climatic and biotic controls of ranges may vary in strength across life stages, implying complex range shift dynamics with climate change.