Publications by authors named "Ahmed Lugelo"

The molecular clock hypothesis assumes that mutations accumulate on an organism's genome at a constant rate over time, but this assumption does not always hold true. While modelling approaches exist to accommodate deviations from a strict molecular clock, assumptions about rate variation may not fully represent the underlying evolutionary processes. There is considerable variability in rabies virus (RABV) incubation periods, ranging from days to over a year, during which viral replication may be reduced.

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Article Synopsis
  • About 60,000 people die from rabies caused by dogs annually, highlighting the need for effective vaccination campaigns, which have been limited by low coverage levels.
  • A study in Tanzania compared team-based vaccination (annual clinics) to community-based vaccination (ongoing local management) and found the latter significantly improved vaccination coverage.
  • Community-based strategies consistently achieved higher coverage rates (49-62%) compared to team-based methods (22-46%), indicating that decentralized vaccination efforts are more effective for controlling rabies.
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Vaccination programs are the mainstay of control for many infectious diseases. Heterogeneous coverage is hypothesised to reduce vaccination effectiveness, but this impact has not been quantified in real systems. We address this gap using fine-scale data from two decades of rabies contact tracing and dog vaccination campaigns in Serengeti district, Tanzania.

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A lack of methods to identify individual animals can be a barrier to zoonoses control. We developed and field-tested facial recognition technology for a mobile phone application to identify dogs, which we used to assess vaccination coverage against rabies in rural Tanzania. Dogs were vaccinated, registered using the application, and microchipped.

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Many rabies endemic-countries have recognized rabies as a public health problem that can be eliminated. As a result, some countries have started implementing small-scale vaccination programs with the aim of scaling them up. Post-vaccination serological monitoring is crucial to assess the efficacy of these programs.

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Abstract: Sustained vaccination coverage of domestic dog populations can interrupt rabies transmission. However, challenges remain including low dog owner participation, high operational costs associated with current (centralized and annually delivered (pulse)) approaches and high dog population turnover. To address these challenges an alternative (community-based continuous mass dog vaccination (CBC-MDV)) approach was designed.

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Objectives: Dog vaccination can eliminate rabies in dogs, but annual delivery strategies do not sustain vaccination coverage between campaigns. We describe the development of a community-based continuous mass dog vaccination (CBC-MDV) approach designed to improve and maintain vaccination coverage in Tanzania and examine the feasibility of delivering this approach as well as lessons for its optimization.

Methods: We developed three delivery strategies of CBC-MDV and tested them against the current annual vaccination strategy following the UK Medical Research Council's guidance: i) developing an evidence-based theoretical framework of intervention pathways and ii) piloting to test feasibility and inform optimization.

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How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate.

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Human rabies can be prevented through mass dog vaccination campaigns; however, in rabies endemic countries, pulsed central point campaigns do not always achieve the recommended coverage of 70%. This study describes the development of a novel approach to sustain high coverage based on decentralized and continuous vaccination delivery. A rabies vaccination campaign was conducted across 12 wards in the Mara region, Tanzania to test this approach.

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Thermostable vaccines greatly improved the reach and impact of large-scale programmes to eliminate infectious diseases such as smallpox, polio, and rinderpest. A study from 2015 demonstrated that the potency of the Nobivac Rabies vaccine was not impacted following experimental storage at 30°C for 3 months. Whether the vaccine would remain efficacious following storage under more natural, fluctuating temperature conditions remains unknown.

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Thermotolerant vaccines greatly improved the reach and impact of large-scale vaccination programs to eliminate diseases such as smallpox, polio and rinderpest. A recent study demonstrated that the potency of the Nobivac Canine Rabies vaccine was not impacted following experimental storage at 30 °C for three months. We conducted a study to develop a passive cooling device (PCD) that could store thermotolerant vaccines under fluctuating subambient temperatures.

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Genomic surveillance is an important aspect of contemporary disease management but has yet to be used routinely to monitor endemic disease transmission and control in low- and middle-income countries. Rabies is an almost invariably fatal viral disease that causes a large public health and economic burden in Asia and Africa, despite being entirely vaccine preventable. With policy efforts now directed towards achieving a global goal of zero dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030, establishing effective surveillance tools is critical.

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Livestock production in Africa is key to national economies, food security and rural livelihoods, and > 85% of livestock keepers live in extreme poverty. With poverty elimination central to the Sustainable Development Goals, livestock keepers are therefore critically important. Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious livestock disease widespread in Africa that contributes to this poverty.

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Landscape heterogeneity plays an important role in disease spread and persistence, but quantifying landscape influences and their scale dependence is challenging. Studies have focused on how environmental features or global transport networks influence pathogen invasion and spread, but their influence on local transmission dynamics that underpin the persistence of endemic diseases remains unexplored. Bayesian phylogeographic frameworks that incorporate spatial heterogeneities are promising tools for analysing linked epidemiological, environmental and genetic data.

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Rabies can be eliminated by achieving comprehensive coverage of 70% of domestic dogs during annual mass vaccination campaigns. Estimates of vaccination coverage are, therefore, required to evaluate and manage mass dog vaccination programs; however, there is no specific guidance for the most accurate and efficient methods for estimating coverage in different settings. Here, we compare post-vaccination transects, school-based surveys, and household surveys across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania and Pemba island covering rural, urban, coastal and inland settings, and a range of different livelihoods and religious backgrounds.

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Malignant catarrhal fever (MCF) is a fatal disease of cattle that, in East Africa, follows contact with wildebeest excreting alcelaphine herpesvirus 1 (AlHV-1). Recently an attenuated vaccine (atAlHV-1) was tested under experimental challenge on Friesian-Holstein (FH) cattle and gave a vaccine efficacy (VE) of approximately 90%. However testing under field conditions on an East African breed, the shorthorn zebu cross (SZC), gave a VE of 56% suggesting that FH and SZC cattle may respond differently to the vaccine.

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Alcelaphine herpesvirus-1 (AlHV-1), a causative agent of malignant catarrhal fever in cattle, was detected in wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) placenta tissue for the first time. Although viral load was low, the finding of viral DNA in over 50% of 94 samples tested lends support to the possibility that placental tissue could play a role in disease transmission and that wildebeest calves are infected in utero. Two viral loci were sequenced to examine variation among virus samples obtained from wildebeest and cattle: the ORF50 gene, encoding the lytic cycle transactivator protein, and the A9.

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This study is the first to partially quantify the potential economic benefits that a vaccine, effective at protecting cattle against malignant catarrhal fever (MCF), could accrue to pastoralists living in East Africa. The benefits would result from the removal of household resource and management costs that are traditionally incurred avoiding the disease. MCF, a fatal disease of cattle caused by a virus transmitted from wildebeest calves, has plagued Maasai communities in East Africa for generations.

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