Modelling the prevalence of hepatitis C virus amongst blood donors in Libya: An investigation of providing a preventive strategy.

Aim: To determine hepatitis C virus (HCV) seroprevalence among the Libyan population using blood donors and applying the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict future trends and formulate plans to minimize the burden of HCV infection.

Methods: HCV positive cases were collected from 1008214 healthy blood donors over a 6-year period from 2008 to 2013. Data were used to construct the ARIMA model to forecast HCV seroprevalence among blood donors.

Seroprevalence of HBV, HCV & HIV co-infection and risk factors analysis in Tripoli-Libya.

Background: In 1998 Libya experienced a major outbreak of multiple blood borne viral hepatitis and HIV infections. Since then, no studies have been done on the epidemic features and risk factors of HBV, HCV, HIV and co-infection among the general population.

Methods: A prospective study was carried out using a multi-centre clustering method to collect samples from the general population.