Mortality risk information and health-seeking behavior during an epidemic.

In a context where pessimistic survival perceptions have been widespread as a result of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (Fig. 1 ), we study vaccine uptake and other health behaviors during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging a longitudinal cohort study in rural Malawi that has been followed for up to 25 y, we document that a 2017 mortality risk information intervention designed to reduce pessimistic mortality perceptions (Fig.

MORTALITY RISK INFORMATION, SURVIVAL EXPECTATIONS AND SEXUAL BEHAVIOURS.

We investigate the impact of a randomised information intervention about population-level mortality on health investment and subjective health expectations. Our focus is on risky sex in a high-HIV-prevalence environment. Treated individuals are less likely to engage in risky sexual practices one year after the intervention, with, for example, an 8% increase in abstinence.

Changes in Spending and Labor Supply in Response to a Social Security Benefit Cut: Evidence from Stated Choice Data.

We investigate how individuals in the U.S. expect to adjust their labor force participation and savings if Social Security benefits were cut by 30 percent.

Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India.

We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able to understand the concept of probability, responses are sensitive to framing effects and to own versus hypothetical-person effects. We find that overall, people are pessimistic about their survival probabilities compared with state-specific life tables and that socioeconomic status does influence beliefs about own survival expectations as found in previous literature in other countries.

The Impact of Repeat HIV Testing on Risky Sexual Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Malawi.

A significant proportion of HIV-positive adults in sub-Saharan Africa are in serodiscordant relationships. Identification of such serodiscordant couples through couple HIV testing and counseling (HTC) is thought to promote safe sexual behavior and reduce the probability of within couple seroconversion. However, it is possible HTC benefits are not sustained over time and therefore repeated HTC may be more effective at preventing seroconversion than one time HTC.

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities in Hypothetical Elections to Study Decisions to Vote.

This paper demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of survey research asking respondents to report voting probabilities in hypothetical election scenarios. Posing scenarios enriches the data available for studies of voting decisions, as a researcher can pose many more and varied scenarios than the elections that persons actually face. Multiple scenarios were presented to over 4,000 participants in the American Life Panel (ALP).

HIV-related social intolerance and risky sexual behavior in a high HIV prevalence environment.

Although most countries state that fighting social intolerance against persons with HIV is part of their national HIV strategy, the impact of reducing intolerance on risky sexual behavior is largely unknown. In this paper, we estimate the effect of social intolerance against HIV+ persons on risky sexual behavior in rural Malawi using data from roughly 2000 respondents from the 2004 and 2006 waves of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH). The effect of social intolerance on risky behavior is a priori ambiguous.

Monetary costs of dementia in the United States.

Background: Dementia affects a large and growing number of older adults in the United States. The monetary costs attributable to dementia are likely to be similarly large and to continue to increase.

Methods: In a subsample (856 persons) of the population in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative longitudinal study of older adults, the diagnosis of dementia was determined with the use of a detailed in-home cognitive assessment that was 3 to 4 hours in duration and a review by an expert panel.

Dementia and out-of-pocket spending on health care services.

Background: High levels of out-of-pocket (OOP) spending for health care may lead patients to forego needed services and medications as well as hamper their ability to pay for other essential goods. Because it leads to disability and the loss of independence, dementia may put patients and their families at risk for high OOP spending, especially for long-term care services.

Methods: We used data from the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study, a nationally representative subsample (n = 743) of the Health and Retirement Study, to determine whether individuals with dementia had higher self-reported OOP spending compared with those with cognitive impairment without dementia and those with normal cognitive function.

The impact of HIV testing on subjective expectations and risky behavior in Malawi.

We investigate the causal impact of learning HIV status on HIV/AIDS-related expectations and sexual behavior in the medium run. Our analyses document several unexpected results about the effect of learning one's own, or one's spouse's, HIV status. For example, receiving an HIV-negative test result implies higher subjective expectations about being HIV-positive after two years, and individuals tend to have larger prediction errors about their HIV status after learning their HIV status.

Candidate preferences and expectations of election outcomes.

Analysis of data from the American Life Panel shows that in the presidential election of 2008 and in multiple statewide elections in 2010, citizens exhibited large differences in their expectations of election outcomes. Expectations were strongly positively associated with candidate preferences, persons tending to believe that their preferred candidate is more likely to win the election. Committed supporters of opposing candidates regularly differed by 20-30% in their assessments of the likelihood that each candidate would win.

Differential survival in Europe and the United States: estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival.

Cross-country comparisons of differential survival by socioeconomic status (SES) are useful in many domains. Yet, to date, such studies have been rare. Reliably estimating differential survival in a single country has been challenging because it requires rich panel data with a large sample size.

Individuals' Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice.

Little is known about the degree to which individuals are uncertain about their future Social Security benefits, how this varies within the U.S. population, and whether this uncertainty influences financial decisions related to retirement planning.

Probabilistic Polling And Voting In The 2008 Presidential Election: Evidence From The American Life Panel.

This article reports new empirical evidence on , which asks persons to state in percent-chance terms the likelihood that they will vote and for whom. Before the 2008 presidential election, seven waves of probabilistic questions were administered biweekly to participants in the American Life Panel (ALP). Actual voting behavior was reported after the election.

Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi.

In this paper we present a newly developed interactive elicitation methodology for collecting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context with low levels of literacy and numeracy, and we evaluate the feasibility and success of this method for a wide range of outcomes in rural Malawi. We find that respondents' answers about their subjective expectations take into account basic properties of probabilities, and vary meaningfully with observable characteristics and past experience. From a substantive point of view, the elicited expectations indicate that individuals are generally aware of differential risks.

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities in Internet Surveys.

Individuals' subjective expectations are important in explaining heterogeneity in individual choices, but their elicitation poses some challenges, in particular when one is interested in the subjective probability distribution of an individual. We have developed an innovative visual representation for Internet surveys that has some advantages over previously used formats. In this paper we present our findings from testing this visual representation in the context of individuals' Social Security expectations.