THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: NATURE, HISTORY, AND THE ROLE OF TRADE.

We explore the role of natural characteristics in determining the worldwide spatial distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, observed across 240,000 grid cells. A parsimonious set of 24 physical geography attributes explains 47% of worldwide variation and 35% of within-country variation in lights. We divide geographic characteristics into two groups, those primarily important for agriculture and those primarily important for trade, and confront a puzzle.

Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?

This paper documents strong but differentiated links between climate and urbanization in large panels of districts and cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has dried substantially in the past fifty years. The key dimension of heterogeneity is whether cities are likely to have manufacturing for export outside their regions, as opposed to being exclusively market towns providing local services to agricultural hinterlands. In regions where cities are likely to be manufacturing centers (25% of our sample), drier conditions increase urbanization and total urban incomes.

Farther on down the road: transport costs, trade and urban growth in sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper investigates the role of inter-city transport costs in determining the income of sub-Saharan African cities. In particular, focusing on fifteen countries whose largest city is a port, I find that an oil price increase of the magnitude experienced between 2002 and 2008 induces the income of cities near that port to increase by 7 percent relative to otherwise identical cities 500 kilometers farther away. Combined with external estimates, this implies an elasticity of city economic activity with respect to transport costs of -0.

Dowry Deaths: Response to Weather Variability in India.

We examine the effect of rainfall shocks on dowry deaths using data from 583 Indian districts for 2002-2007. We find that a one standard deviation decline in annual rainfall from the local mean increases reported dowry deaths by 7.8 percent.

MEASURING ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM OUTER SPACE.

GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities or subnational regions. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. We develop a statistical framework that uses lights growth to augment existing income growth measures, under the assumption that measurement error in using observed light as an indicator of income is uncorrelated with measurement error in national income accounts.

"Delivering" on the MDGs?: equity and maternal health in Ghana, Ethiopia and Kenya.

Objectives: The Millennium Development Goals (MIDGs) have put maternal health in the mainstream, but there is a need to go beyond the MDGs to address equity within countries. We argue that MDG focus on maternal health is necessary but not sufficient. This paper uses Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana to examine a set of maternal health indicators stratified along five different dimensions.

The Global Distribution of Infant Mortality: A subnational spatial view.

We describe the compilation of a spatially explicit dataset detailing infant mortality rates in over 10,000 national and subnational units worldwide, benchmarked to the year 2000. Although their resolution is highly variable, subnational data are available for countries representing over 90% of non-OECD population. Concentration of global infant deaths is higher than implied by national data alone.

Global trends in emerging infectious diseases.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns.

Setting the stage for equity-sensitive monitoring of the maternal and child health Millennium Development Goals.

Objective: This analysis seeks to set the stage for equity-sensitive monitoring of the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Methods: We use data from international household-level surveys (Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS)) to demonstrate that establishing an equity baseline is necessary and feasible, even in low-income and data-poor countries. We assess data from six countries using 11 health indicators and six social stratifiers.