Malaria Risk Stratification and Modeling the Effect of Rainfall on Malaria Incidence in Eritrea.

Background: Malaria risk stratification is essential to differentiate areas with distinct malaria intensity and seasonality patterns. The development of a simple prediction model to forecast malaria incidence by rainfall offers an opportunity for early detection of malaria epidemics.

Objectives: To construct a national malaria stratification map, develop prediction models and forecast monthly malaria incidences based on rainfall data.