Judgments of causal efficacy under constant and changing interevent contingencies.

How do people judge constant and varying interevent contingencies? In two experiments, 150 college students rated the efficacy of a potential cause (an experimental fertilizer) of an effect (a plant's blooming). The prevailing probabilistic interevent relation could remain constant for the entirety of the problem or it could change without warning at the midway point: by contingency reversal, by shifting from noncontingency to contingency, or by shifting from contingency to noncontingency. Participants' trial-by-trial ratings sensitively tracked the prevailing positive, negative, and noncontingent interevent relations, even those that entailed an unsignaled change in contingency.