Optimal subscription models to pay for antibiotics.

Novel subscription payment schemes are one of the approaches being explored to tackle the threat of antimicrobial resistance. Under these schemes, some or all of the payment is made via a fixed "subscription" payment, which provides a funder unlimited access to the treatment for a specific duration, rather than relying purely on a price per pill. Subscription-based schemes guarantee pharmaceutical firms income that incentivises investment in developing new antibiotics, and can promote responsible stewardship.

Antimicrobial Resistance: Is Health Technology Assessment Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?

Antimicrobial resistance is a serious challenge to the success and sustainability of our healthcare systems. There has been increasing policy attention given to antimicrobial resistance in the last few years, and increased amounts of funding have been channeled into funding for research and development of antimicrobial agents. Nevertheless, manufacturers doubt whether there will be a market for new antimicrobial technologies sufficient to enable them to recoup their investment.

Health systems, population and patient challenges for achieving universal health coverage for hypertension in Ghana.

Ghana has signed on to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal to achieve universal health coverage (UHC), ensuring that all individuals receive the health care they require without financial hardship. Achieving that goal is a difficult task in any setting. The challenges are further exacerbated by a changing disease landscape, as the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is increasing and creating a dual burden along with infectious diseases.

Reference Case Methods for Expert Elicitation in Health Care Decision Making.

Background: The evidence used to inform health care decision making (HCDM) is typically uncertain. In these situations, the experience of experts is essential to help decision makers reach a decision. Structured expert elicitation (referred to as elicitation) is a quantitative process to capture experts' beliefs.

Developing a reference protocol for structured expert elicitation in health-care decision-making: a mixed-methods study.

Background: Many decisions in health care aim to maximise health, requiring judgements about interventions that may have higher health effects but potentially incur additional costs (cost-effectiveness framework). The evidence used to establish cost-effectiveness is typically uncertain and it is important that this uncertainty is characterised. In situations in which evidence is uncertain, the experience of experts is essential.

How Should the Value Attributes of Novel Antibiotics Be Considered in Reimbursement Decision Making?

Antibiotics have revolutionized the treatment of bacterial infections. However, it is widely held that there is underinvestment in antibiotics research and development relative to the socially optimal level for a number of reasons. In this article, we discuss whether existing health technology assessment procedures recognize the full economic and societal value of new antibiotics to patients and society when making reimbursement decisions.

Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods.

The increase of multidrug resistance and resistance to last-line antibiotics is a major global public health threat. Although surveillance programs provide useful current and historical information on the scale of the problem, the future emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance is uncertain, and quantifying this uncertainty is crucial for guiding decisions about investment in antibiotics and resistance control strategies. Mathematical and statistical models capable of projecting future rates are challenged by the paucity of data and the complexity of the emergence and spread of resistance, but experts have relevant knowledge.

Health and economic benefits of public financing of epilepsy treatment in India: An agent-based simulation model.

Objective: An estimated 6-10 million people in India live with active epilepsy, and less than half are treated. We analyze the health and economic benefits of three scenarios of publicly financed national epilepsy programs that provide: (1) first-line antiepilepsy drugs (AEDs), (2) first- and second-line AEDs, and (3) first- and second-line AEDs and surgery.

Methods: We model the prevalence and distribution of epilepsy in India using IndiaSim, an agent-based, simulation model of the Indian population.

Health and economic benefits of scaling up a home-based neonatal care package in rural India: a modelling analysis.

Approximately 900 000 newborn children die every year in India, accounting for 28% of neonatal deaths globally. In 2011, India introduced a home-based newborn care (HBNC) package to be delivered by community health workers across rural areas. We estimate the disease and economic burden that could be averted by scaling up the HBNC in rural India using IndiaSim, an agent-based simulation model, to examine two interventions.

Quantifying uncertainty in intervention effectiveness with structured expert judgement: an application to obstetric fistula.

Objective: To demonstrate a new application of structured expert judgement to assess the effectiveness of surgery to correct obstetric fistula in a low-income setting. Intervention effectiveness is a major input of evidence-informed priority setting in healthcare, but information on intervention effectiveness is generally lacking. This is particularly problematic in the context of poorly resourced healthcare settings where even efficacious interventions fail to translate into improvements in health.

Analysis of the Universal Immunization Programme and introduction of a rotavirus vaccine in India with IndiaSim.

Background And Objectives: India has the highest under-five death toll globally, approximately 20% of which is attributed to vaccine-preventable diseases. India's Universal Immunization Programme (UIP) is working both to increase immunization coverage and to introduce new vaccines. Here, we analyze the disease and financial burden alleviated across India's population (by wealth quintile, rural or urban area, and state) through increasing vaccination rates and introducing a rotavirus vaccine.