Role of heterogeneity: National scale data-driven agent-based modeling for the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

UVA-EpiHiper is a national scale agent-based model to support the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH). UVA-EpiHiper uses a detailed representation of the underlying social contact network along with data measured during the course of the pandemic to initialize and calibrate the model. In this paper, we study the role of heterogeneity on model complexity and resulting epidemic dynamics using UVA-EpiHiper.

Novel multi-cluster workflow system to support real-time HPC-enabled epidemic science: Investigating the impact of vaccine acceptance on COVID-19 spread.

We present MacKenzie, a HPC-driven multi-cluster workflow system that was used repeatedly to configure and execute fine-grained US national-scale epidemic simulation models during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mackenzie supported federal and Virginia policymakers, in real-time, for a large number of "what-if" scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic, and continues to be used to answer related questions as COVID-19 transitions to the endemic stage of the disease. MacKenzie is a novel HPC meta-scheduler that can execute US-scale simulation models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges.

Data-driven scalable pipeline using national agent-based models for real-time pandemic response and decision support.

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning and response. The pipeline consists of () an automatic semantic-aware scheduling method that coordinates jobs across two separate high performance computing systems; () a data pipeline to collect, integrate and organize national and county-level disaggregated data for initialization and post-simulation analysis; () a digital twin of national social contact networks made up of 288 Million individuals and 12.6 Billion time-varying interactions covering the US states and DC; () an extension of a parallel agent-based simulation model to study epidemic dynamics and associated interventions.

Network Models and Simulation Analytics for Multi-scale Dynamics of Biological Invasions.

Globalization and climate change facilitate the spread and establishment of invasive species throughout the world via multiple pathways. These spread mechanisms can be effectively represented as diffusion processes on multi-scale, spatial networks. Such network-based modeling and simulation approaches are being increasingly applied in this domain.

Prioritizing allocation of COVID-19 vaccines based on social contacts increases vaccination effectiveness.

We study allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to individuals based on the structural properties of their underlying social contact network. Even optimistic estimates suggest that most countries will likely take 6 to 24 months to vaccinate their citizens. These time estimates and the emergence of new viral strains urge us to find quick and effective ways to allocate the vaccines and contain the pandemic.

Assessing the multi-pathway threat from an invasive agricultural pest: in Asia.

Modern food systems facilitate rapid dispersal of pests and pathogens through multiple pathways. The complexity of spread dynamics and data inadequacy make it challenging to model the phenomenon and also to prepare for emerging invasions. We present a generic framework to study the spatio-temporal spread of invasive species as a multi-scale propagation process over a time-varying network accounting for climate, biology, seasonal production, trade and demographic information.

Using Network Reliability to Understand International Food Trade Dynamics.

Understanding the structural and dynamical properties of food networks is critical for food security and social welfare. Here, we analyze international trade networks corresponding to four solanaceous crops obtained using the Food and Agricultural Organization trade database using Moore-Shannon network reliability. We present a novel approach to identify important dynamics-induced clusters of highly-connected nodes in a directed weighted network.

Disparities in spread and control of influenza in slums of Delhi: findings from an agent-based modelling study.

Objectives: This research studies the role of slums in the spread and control of infectious diseases in the National Capital Territory of India, Delhi, using detailed social contact networks of its residents.

Methods: We use an agent-based model to study the spread of influenza in Delhi through person-to-person contact. Two different networks are used: one in which slum and non-slum regions are treated the same, and the other in which 298 slum zones are identified.