Future trends in social inequalities in obesity in England, Wales and Scotland.

Background: Previous studies have shown persistent or increasing socioeconomic inequalities in obesity in many European countries. The aim of this study was to project trends in social inequalities in obesity to 2035 in male and female adults (aged 16+) in the UK to ascertain if the gap is widening or narrowing.

Methodology: BMI data for the UK were extracted from the Health Survey for England (2004-14), Scottish Health Survey (2008-14) and the Welsh Health Survey (2004-14), respectively.

Screening and brief intervention for obesity in primary care: cost-effectiveness analysis in the BWeL trial.

Background: The Brief Intervention for Weight Loss Trial enrolled 1882 consecutively attending primary care patients who were obese and participants were randomised to physicians opportunistically endorsing, offering, and facilitating a referral to a weight loss programme (support) or recommending weight loss (advice). After one year, the support group lost 1.4 kg more (95%CI 0.

Bariatric surgery, lifestyle interventions and orlistat for severe obesity: the REBALANCE mixed-methods systematic review and economic evaluation.

Background: Adults with severe obesity [body mass index (BMI) of ≥ 35 kg/m] have an increased risk of comorbidities and psychological, social and economic consequences.

Objectives: Systematically review bariatric surgery, weight-management programmes (WMPs) and orlistat pharmacotherapy for adults with severe obesity, and evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatment.

Data Sources: Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database were searched (last searched in May 2017).

Forecasting Future Trends in Obesity across Europe: The Value of Improving Surveillance.

Objective: To project the prevalence of obesity across the WHO European region and examine whether the WHO target of halting obesity at 2010 levels by 2025 is achievable.

Methods: BMI data were collected from online databases and the literature. Past and present BMI trends were extrapolated to 2025 using a non-linear categorical regression model fitted to nationally representative survey data.

Morbid obesity in the UK: A modelling projection study to 2035.

Morbid obesity (body mass index ⩾40 kg/m) carries a higher risk of non-communicable disease and is associated with more complex health issues and challenges than obesity body mass index ≥30kg/m2 and <40kg/m2, resulting in much higher financial implications for health systems. Although obesity trends have previously been projected to 2035, these projections do not separate morbid obesity from obesity. This study therefore complements these projections and looks at the prevalence and development of morbid obesity in the UK.

Estimating the costs of air pollution to the National Health Service and social care: An assessment and forecast up to 2035.

Background: Air pollution damages health by promoting the onset of some non-communicable diseases (NCDs), putting additional strain on the National Health Service (NHS) and social care. This study quantifies the total health and related NHS and social care cost burden due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in England.

Inequalities in smoking and obesity in Europe predicted to 2050: Findings from the EConDA project.

Aims: The aim of this study was to project educational inequalities in obesity and smoking prevalence to 2050 based on past obesity and smoking trends by education level.

Methods: Data on obesity (body mass index ≥ 30) and smoking prevalence (current smokers) by education level (tertiary education and less than tertiary) from nationally representative cross-sectional surveys were collected for the following six countries participating in the Economics of Chronic Diseases project (EConDA): England, Finland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland (obesity only) and Portugal (obesity only). A nonlinear multivariate regression model was fitted to the data to create longitudinal projections to 2050.

Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the benefits of increasing the UK tobacco duty escalator to public health and economic outcomes.

Introduction: Taxing tobacco is one of the most effective ways to reduce smoking prevalence, mitigate its devastating consequential health harms and progress towards a tobacco-free society. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of increasing the existing cigarette tobacco duty escalator (TDE) in the UK from the current 2% above consumer price inflation to 5%.

Methods: A two-stage modelling process was used.

Identification of differences in health impact modelling of salt reduction.

We examined whether specific input data and assumptions explain outcome differences in otherwise comparable health impact assessment models. Seven population health models estimating the impact of salt reduction on morbidity and mortality in western populations were compared on four sets of key features, their underlying assumptions and input data. Next, assumptions and input data were varied one by one in a default approach (the DYNAMO-HIA model) to examine how it influences the estimated health impact.

Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the public health and economic benefits of achieving a 'tobacco-free' UK.

Introduction: Smoking is still the most preventable cause of cancer, and a leading cause of premature mortality and health inequalities in the UK. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of achieving a 'tobacco-free' ambition (TFA) where, by 2035, less than 5% of the population smoke tobacco across all socioeconomic groups.

Methods: A non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data to create projections to 2035.

Extended and standard duration weight-loss programme referrals for adults in primary care (WRAP): a randomised controlled trial.

Background: Evidence exist that primary care referral to an open-group behavioural programme is an effective strategy for management of obesity, but little evidence on optimal intervention duration is available. We aimed to establish whether 52-week referral to an open-group weight-management programme would achieve greater weight loss and improvements in a range of health outcomes and be more cost-effective than the current practice of 12-week referrals.

Methods: In this non-blinded, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial, we recruited participants who were aged 18 years or older and had body-mass index (BMI) of 28 kg/m or higher from 23 primary care practices in England.