Process modelling of NHS cardiovascular waiting lists in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective: To model the referral, diagnostic and treatment pathway for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the English National Health Service (NHS) to provide commissioners and managers with a methodology to optimise patient flow and reduce waiting lists.

Study Design: A systems dynamics approach modelling the CVD healthcare system in England. The model is designed to capture current and predict future states of waiting lists.

A new phase model of the spatiotemporal relationships between three circadian oscillators in the brainstem.

Analysis of ex vivo Per2 bioluminescent rhythm previously recorded in the mouse dorsal vagal complex reveals a characteristic phase relationship between three distinct circadian oscillators. These signals represent core clock gene expression in the area postrema (AP), the nucleus of the solitary tract (NTS) and the ependymal cells surrounding the 4th ventricle (4Vep). Initially, the data suggests a consistent phasing in which the AP peaks first, followed shortly by the NTS, with the 4Vep peaking 8-9 h later.

conditions for Turing and wave instabilities in reaction-diffusion systems.

Necessary and sufficient conditions are provided for a diffusion-driven instability of a stable equilibrium of a reaction-diffusion system with n components and diagonal diffusion matrix. These can be either Turing or wave instabilities. Known necessary and sufficient conditions are reproduced for there to exist diffusion rates that cause a Turing bifurcation of a stable homogeneous state in the absence of diffusion.

Getting the most out of maths: How to coordinate mathematical modelling research to support a pandemic, lessons learnt from three initiatives that were part of the COVID-19 response in the UK.

In March 2020 mathematics became a key part of the scientific advice to the UK government on the pandemic response to COVID-19. Mathematical and statistical modelling provided critical information on the spread of the virus and the potential impact of different interventions. The unprecedented scale of the challenge led the epidemiological modelling community in the UK to be pushed to its limits.

Emergence of the London Millennium Bridge instability without synchronisation.

The pedestrian-induced instability of the London Millennium Bridge is a widely used example of Kuramoto synchronisation. Yet, reviewing observational, experimental, and modelling evidence, we argue that increased coherence of pedestrians' foot placement is a consequence of, not a cause of the instability. Instead, uncorrelated pedestrians produce positive feedback, through negative damping on average, that can initiate significant lateral bridge vibration over a wide range of natural frequencies.

Explanation of the onset of bouncing cycles in isotropic rotor dynamics; a grazing bifurcation analysis.

The dynamics associated with bouncing-type partial contact cycles are considered for a 2 degree-of-freedom unbalanced rotor in the rigid-stator limit. Specifically, analytical explanation is provided for a previously proposed criterion for the onset upon increasing the rotor speed of single-bounce-per-period periodic motion, namely internal resonance between forward and backward whirling modes. Focusing on the cases of 2 : 1 and 3 : 2 resonances, detailed numerical results for small rotor damping reveal that stable bouncing periodic orbits, which coexist with non-contacting motion, arise just beyond the resonance speed .

Tropical tree cover in a heterogeneous environment: A reaction-diffusion model.

Observed bimodal tree cover distributions at particular environmental conditions and theoretical models indicate that some areas in the tropics can be in either of the alternative stable vegetation states forest or savanna. However, when including spatial interaction in nonspatial differential equation models of a bistable quantity, only the state with the lowest potential energy remains stable. Our recent reaction-diffusion model of Amazonian tree cover confirmed this and was able to reproduce the observed spatial distribution of forest versus savanna satisfactorily when forced by heterogeneous environmental and anthropogenic variables, even though bistability was underestimated.

Revealing instabilities in a generalized triadic supply network: A bifurcation analysis.

Supply networks are exposed to instabilities and thus a high level of risk. To mitigate this risk, it is necessary to understand how instabilities are formed in supply networks. In this paper, we focus on instabilities in inventory dynamics that develop due to the topology of the supply network.

Author Correction: Amazonian forest-savanna bistability and human impact.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15519.

A phase-plane analysis of localized frictional waves.

Sliding frictional interfaces at a range of length scales are observed to generate travelling waves; these are considered relevant, for example, to both earthquake ground surface movements and the performance of mechanical brakes and dampers. We propose an explanation of the origins of these waves through the study of an idealized mechanical model: a thin elastic plate subject to uniform shear stress held in frictional contact with a rigid flat surface. We construct a nonlinear wave equation for the deformation of the plate, and couple it to a spinodal rate-and-state friction law which leads to a mathematically well-posed problem that is capable of capturing many effects not accessible in a Coulomb friction model.

Amazonian forest-savanna bistability and human impact.

A bimodal distribution of tropical tree cover at intermediate precipitation levels has been presented as evidence of fire-induced bistability. Here we subdivide satellite vegetation data into those from human-unaffected areas and those from regions close to human-cultivated zones. Bimodality is found to be almost absent in the unaffected regions, whereas it is significantly enhanced close to cultivated zones.

Asynchronous partial contact motion due to internal resonance in multiple degree-of-freedom rotordynamics.

Sudden onset of violent chattering or whirling rotor-stator contact motion in rotational machines can cause significant damage in many industrial applications. It is shown that internal resonance can lead to the onset of bouncing-type partial contact motion away from primary resonances. These partial contact limit cycles can involve any two modes of an arbitrarily high degree-of-freedom system, and can be seen as an extension of a synchronization condition previously reported for a single disc system.

Respiratory modulated sympathetic activity: a putative mechanism for developing vascular resistance?

Key Points: Sympathetic activity exhibits respiratory modulation that is amplified in hypertensive rats. Respiratory modulated sympathetic activity produces greater changes in vascular resistance than tonic stimulation of the same stimulus magnitude in normotensive but not hypertensive rats. Mathematical modelling demonstrates that respiratory modulated sympathetic activity may fail to produce greater vascular resistance changes in hypertensive rats because the system is saturated as a consequence of a dysfunctional noradrenaline reuptake mechanism.

The landscape of nonlinear structural dynamics: an introduction.

Nonlinear behaviour is ever-present in vibrations and other dynamical motions of engineering structures. Manifestations of nonlinearity include amplitude-dependent natural frequencies, buzz, squeak and rattle, self-excited oscillation and non-repeatability. This article primarily serves as an extended introduction to a theme issue in which such nonlinear phenomena are highlighted through diverse case studies.

The use of normal forms for analysing nonlinear mechanical vibrations.

A historical introduction is given of the theory of normal forms for simplifying nonlinear dynamical systems close to resonances or bifurcation points. The specific focus is on mechanical vibration problems, described by finite degree-of-freedom second-order-in-time differential equations. A recent variant of the normal form method, that respects the specific structure of such models, is recalled.

Modelling the vascular response to sympathetic postganglionic nerve activity.

This paper explores the influence of burst properties of the sympathetic nervous system on arterial contractility. Specifically, a mathematical model is constructed of the pathway from action potential generation in a sympathetic postganglionic neurone to contraction of an arterial smooth muscle cell. The differential equation model is a synthesis of models of the individual physiological processes, and is shown to be consistent with physiological data.

Increased intrinsic excitability of muscle vasoconstrictor preganglionic neurons may contribute to the elevated sympathetic activity in hypertensive rats.

Hypertension is associated with pathologically increased sympathetic drive to the vasculature. This has been attributed to increased excitatory drive to sympathetic preganglionic neurons (SPN) from brainstem cardiovascular control centers. However, there is also evidence supporting increased intrinsic excitability of SPN.

The impacting cantilever: modal non-convergence and the importance of stiffness matching.

The problem of an Euler-Bernoulli cantilever beam whose free end impacts with a point constraint is revisited from the point of view of modal analysis. It is shown that there is non-uniqueness of consistent impact laws for a given modal truncation. Moreover, taking an N-mode compliant, bilinear formulation and passing to the rigid limit leads to a sequence of impact models that does not converge as N--> ∞.

Improving the signal-to-noise ratio of high-speed contact mode atomic force microscopy.

During high-speed contact mode atomic force microscopy, higher eigenmode flexural oscillations of the cantilever have been identified as the main source of noise in the resultant topography images. We show that by selectively filtering out the frequencies corresponding to these oscillations in the time domain prior to transforming the data into the spatial domain, significant improvements in image quality can be achieved.

Modelling oscillatory flexure modes of an atomic force microscope cantilever in contact mode whilst imaging at high speed.

Understanding the modal response of an atomic force microscope is important for the identification of image artefacts captured using contact-mode atomic force microscopy (AFM). As the scan rate of high speed AFM increases, these modes present themselves as ever clearer noise patterns as the frequency of cantilever vibration falls under the frequency of pixel collection. An Euler-Bernoulli beam equation is used to simulate the flexural modes of the cantilever of an atomic force microscope as it images a hard surface in contact mode.

High-speed atomic force microscopy in slow motion--understanding cantilever behaviour at high scan velocities.

Using scanning laser Doppler vibrometer we have identified sources of noise in contact mode high-speed atomic force microscope images and the cantilever dynamics that cause them. By analysing reconstructed animations of the entire cantilever passing over various surfaces, we identified higher eigenmode oscillations along the cantilever as the cause of the image artefacts. We demonstrate that these can be removed by monitoring the displacement rather than deflection of the tip of the cantilever.

Nonlinear models of development, amplification and compression in the mammalian cochlea.

This paper reviews current understanding and presents new results on some of the nonlinear processes that underlie the function of the mammalian cochlea. These processes occur within mechano-sensory hair cells that form part of the organ of Corti. After a general overview of cochlear physiology, mathematical modelling results are presented in three parts.

Experimental observation of contact mode cantilever dynamics with nanosecond resolution.

We report the use of a laser Doppler vibrometer to measure the motion of an atomic force microscope contact mode cantilever during continuous line scans of a mica surface. With a sufficiently high density of measurement points the dynamics of the entire cantilever beam, from the apex to the base, can be reconstructed. We demonstrate nanosecond resolution of both rectangular and triangular cantilevers.

Catastrophic sliding bifurcations and onset of oscillations in a superconducting resonator.

This paper presents a general analysis and a concrete example of the catastrophic case of a discontinuity-induced bifurcation in so-called Filippov nonsmooth dynamical systems. Such systems are characterized by discontinuous jumps in the right-hand sides of differential equations across a phase space boundary and are often used as physical models of stick-slip motion and relay control. Sliding bifurcations of periodic orbits have recently been shown to underlie the onset of complex dynamics including chaos.