Estimating the time of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus introduction into United States poultry flocks during the 2022/24 epizootic.

Following confirmation of the first case of the ongoing U.S. HPAI H5N1 epizootic in commercial poultry on February 8, 2022, the virus has continued to devastate the U.

African swine fever detection and transmission estimates using homogeneous versus heterogeneous model formulation in stochastic simulations within pig premises.

Background: African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important foreign animal diseases to the U.S. swine industry.

Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in a partially comorbid community.

A deterministic epidemic model that describes the spreading of SARS-COV-2 within a community with comorbidities is formulated. Size dependent area is incorporated into the model to quantify the effect of social distancing and the results indicate that the risk of community transmission is optimally minimised when the occupancy area is increased. The reproduction number is shown to have a positive relationship with the infection rate, the proportion of individuals with comorbidities and the proportion of susceptible individuals adhering to standard operating procedures.

Predicting the time to detect moderately virulent African swine fever virus in finisher swine herds using a stochastic disease transmission model.

Background: African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and devastating pig disease that has caused extensive global economic losses. Understanding ASF virus (ASFV) transmission dynamics within a herd is necessary in order to prepare for and respond to an outbreak in the United States. Although the transmission parameters for the highly virulent ASF strains have been estimated in several articles, there are relatively few studies focused on moderately virulent strains.