Predicting the cancer burden in Catalonia between 2015 and 2025: the challenge of cancer management in the elderly.

Background: Developing effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025.

Methods: Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry.

Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models.

Purpose: To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010-2020.

Methods/patients: Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics.