Duration of transients in outbreaks: when can infectiousness be estimated?

We investigate sub-leading orders of the classic SEIR-model using contact matrices from modeling of the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19 in Denmark. The goal of this is to illustrate when the growth rate, and by extension the infection transmission potential (basic or initial reproduction number), can be estimated in a new outbreak, e.g.

Memory effects in disease modelling through kernel estimates with oscillatory time history.

We design a linear chain trick algorithm for dynamical systems for which we have oscillatory time histories in the distributed time delay. We make use of this algorithmic framework to analyse memory effects in disease evolution in a population. The modelling is based on a susceptible-infected-recovered SIR-model and on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered SEIR-model through a kernel that dampens the activity based on the recent history of infectious individuals.

Many morphs: Parsing gesture signals from the noise.

Parsing signals from noise is a general problem for signallers and recipients, and for researchers studying communicative systems. Substantial efforts have been invested in comparing how other species encode information and meaning, and how signalling is structured. However, research depends on identifying and discriminating signals that represent meaningful units of analysis.

On self-similar patterns in coupled parabolic systems as non-equilibrium steady states.

We consider reaction-diffusion systems and other related dissipative systems on unbounded domains with the aim of showing that self-similarity, besides the well-known exact self-similar solutions, can also occur asymptotically in two different forms. For this, we study systems on the unbounded real line that have the property that their restriction to a finite domain has a Lyapunov function (and a gradient structure). In this situation, the system may reach local equilibrium on a rather fast time scale, but on unbounded domains with an infinite amount of mass or energy, it leads to a persistent mass or energy flow for all times; hence, in general, no true equilibrium is reached globally.