Publications by authors named "A M Gumel"

Containing infectious disease outbreaks is a complex challenge that usually requires the deployment of multiple intervention strategies. While mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is a widely accepted tool to evaluate intervention strategies, most models and studies overlook the interdependence between individuals' reactions to simultaneously implemented interventions. Intervention modeling efforts typically assume that individual adherence decisions are independent of each other.

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Article Synopsis
  • Intense wildfires are increasingly impacting air quality, raising concerns about potential negative effects on cardiopulmonary health for people exposed to smoke, particularly in the Eastern US.
  • A study aimed to examine the relationship between smoke from wildfires in Western Canada and respiratory diseases in various demographic groups in Eastern US populations, using data from the University of Maryland Medical System.
  • Findings showed significantly higher rates of cardiopulmonary clinical encounters during "hotspot days" with elevated PM2.5 levels, indicating a correlation between increased pollution and health issues, especially during notable air quality deteriorations in June 2023.
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About 80% of the global lead production is consumed by the battery industry. As old batteries are increasingly being recycled without adequate recourse to safety and protection in many developing countries, there is well-documented evidence of lead poisoning among the workers. This study compared blood lead levels (BLL) of battery recycling workers (BRW) with controls in Northern Nigeria.

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A new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics and control of the Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS), a respiratory virus caused by MERS-CoV (and primarily spread to humans by dromedary camels) that first emerged out of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2012, was designed and used to study the transmission dynamics of the disease in a human-camel population within the KSA. Rigorous analysis of the model, which was fitted and cross-validated using the observed MERS-CoV data for the KSA, showed that its disease-free equilibrium was locally asymptotically stable whenever its reproduction number (denoted by $ {\mathbb R}_{0M} $) was less than unity. Using the fixed and estimated parameters of the model, the value of $ {\mathbb R}_{0M} $ for the KSA was estimated to be 0.

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