During the Covid-19 pandemic, the best-performing modelling groups were not always the best-resourced. This paper seeks to understand and learn from notable predictions in two reports by the UK's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). In July 2021, SAGE reported that, after the upcoming lifting of restrictions ("Freedom Day") cases would "almost certainly remain extremely high for the rest of the summer" and that hospitalisations per day would peak between 100 and 10,000.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFScience is humanity's best insurance against threats from nature, but it is a fragile enterprise that must be nourished and protected. The preponderance of scientific evidence indicates a natural origin for SARS-CoV-2. Yet, the theory that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in and escaped from a lab dominates media attention, even in the absence of strong evidence.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: Emergency department (ED) clinicians are more frequently providing care, including end-of-life care, to older people.
Objectives: To estimate the need for ED end-of-life care for people aged ≥65 years, describe characteristics of those dying within 48 hours of ED presentation and compare those dying in ED with those dying elsewhere.
Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study analysing data from 177 hospitals in Australia and New Zealand.