Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble.

The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982-2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1.

Sensitivity of El Niño intensity and timing to preceding subsurface heat magnitude.

Despite extensive ongoing efforts on improving the long-term prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the predictability in state-of-the-art operational schemes remains limited by factors such as the spring barrier and the influence of atmospheric winds. Recent research suggests that the 2014/15 El Niño (EN) event was stalled as a result of an unusually strong basin-wide easterly wind burst in June, which led to the discharge of a large fraction of the subsurface ocean heat. Here we use observational records and numerical experiments to explore the sensitivity of EN to the magnitude of the heat buildup occurring in the ocean subsurface 21 months in advance.

Endocrine and behavioral response to a decline in habitat quality: effects of pond drying on the slider turtle, Trachemys scripta.

The effect of the simulated drying of a pond on the behavior and corticosterone secretion of Trachemys scripta was measured in a field situation. Slider turtles were held in experimental and control ponds (12 x 15 m) enclosed with a drift fence integrated with spring-triggered livetraps. The experimental pond water level was dropped 10 cm per day for 8 d, until water was completely drained.